The baseline has moved.
In June 2026 the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued an El Niño advisory and gave a 63% chance of a very strong event for November 2026 to January 2027. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) rates agricultural risk in Southern Africa as high for October 2026 to March 2027, with below-average rainfall and extreme heat expected.